where n = total drops, h = hits
Dropping sticks to estimate Pi - a 1777 Monte Carlo experiment
where n = total drops, h = hits
Draw parallel lines on a floor, spaced d units apart. Drop a needle of length l (where l ≤ d). Count how many needles cross a line. The probability of crossing is 2l/(πd). Rearranging: π = 2ln / (dh).
A needle crosses a line if its center's distance to the nearest line is less than ½l × sin(θ), where θ is the angle. Integrating over all angles (0 to π) and all distances (0 to d/2) gives the probability formula involving pi—it appears naturally from the geometry!
This is one of history's first Monte Carlo simulations— using randomness to estimate mathematical constants. The same principle powers modern computer graphics, financial modeling, and nuclear physics calculations. Random sampling converges to truth!
Proposed by Georges-Louis Leclerc, Comte de Buffon in 1777. He was a naturalist who also estimated Earth's age at 75,000 years (bold for his time!). The needle problem was his venture into probability theory—with spectacularly beautiful results.