📚 Compare Survival Prospects
📊 Survival Probability Chart
If it lasted 100 years, expect 100 more
🔮 Your Own Lindy Calculator
Enter something's age to predict its remaining lifespan:
Expected additional lifespan:
Total expected life: ~100 years
🏛️ Origin Story
Lindy's Delicatessen, NYC
In the 1960s, comedians gathered at Lindy's deli on Broadway. Writer Albert Goldman observed that a comedian's total career length seemed proportional to how long they'd already been performing. A comic with 10 years in the business would likely last another 10.
Mathematician Benoit Mandelbrot formalized this in 1982. Nassim Nicholas Taleb expanded it in Antifragile (2012) to cover all non-perishable things.
⚡ Why It Works: The Filter of Time
🔥 Fads Die Fast
Most new things don't survive their first test. Fidget spinners, pet rocks, Clubhouse app—flash and fade. Only the robust persist.
🛡️ Survival = Robustness
Something that survived 100 years has weathered wars, recessions, technological disruptions, and cultural shifts. That's evidence of resilience.
📉 Power Law Distribution
Lifespans follow power laws, not normal distributions. There's no "average" lifespan for ideas—some die in days, others last millennia.
⚠️ The Catch
Lindy only applies to non-perishable things. People, bananas, and light bulbs age normally. But books, religions, and the wheel? Lindy.