Divergent fates: Mainline collapse, Evangelical plateau, Catholic churn (1950–2023)
The aggregate decline in American church membership masks three distinct narratives. The Mainline Protestant denominations have experienced catastrophic losses—the UMC alone dropping from 11 million to 4.2 million members. The Southern Baptist Convention grew through 2006 before entering sustained decline. And the Catholic Church appears stable at ~60 million adherents, though this masks severe retention challenges offset by immigration.