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Sleeping Beauty

Philosophy:

The Paradox

Sleeping Beauty is put to sleep on Sunday. A fair coin is flipped. Heads: she wakes Monday only. Tails: she wakes Monday AND Tuesday (memory erased between).

When she wakes, what should her credence in Heads be?
Thirders: 3 possible awakenings, only 1 is Heads, so P(H) = 1/3.
Halfers: The coin is fair, nothing changes that, so P(H) = 1/2.

This is one of the most debated problems in modern philosophy of probability.

Simulation Results

Total experiments: 0
Heads flips: 0
Tails flips: 0
Total awakenings: 0
Heads awakenings: 0
Tails awakenings: 0
P(H) per flip: --
P(H) per waking: --