← Probability Paradoxes

Secretary Problem

N candidates arrive one by one. You can accept or reject each -- but you can't go back! What's the optimal strategy?

Click "New Game" to play!
Win Rates (simulation):
Always first: --
Random stop: --
37% rule: --
Your manual: --
Games played: 0
Your wins: 0

The 37% Rule

The optimal strategy: reject the first N/e (~37%) of candidates, then accept the first one better than all you've seen.

This gives a ~37% chance of picking the absolute best -- far better than random guessing (~5% for 20 candidates). The same math applies to house-hunting, dating, and hiring!