The most famous bet in consciousness science
"Within 25 years, researchers will discover a 'clear' neural signature of consciousness."
"25 years down the line? Piece of cake. We'll crack consciousness just like we cracked the genetic code."
"I hope I lose, but I suspect I'll win. The hard problem isn't going anywhere."
At ASSC, Koch bets Chalmers a case of wine that within 25 years science will identify a clear neural correlate of consciousness.
Tononi publishes Integrated Information Theory, offering a mathematical framework for consciousness.
fMRI reveals awareness in a patient diagnosed as vegetative — consciousness detection becomes possible.
Massimini's Perturbational Complexity Index provides a reliable consciousness meter.
Templeton funds rigorous theory testing. Finally, theories will be held accountable to data.
At ASSC in NYC, Koch presents Chalmers with a case of fine wine. No clear signature found.
Koch immediately doubles down with a new bet. Another 25 years...
"I had expected 25 years ago that by now we'd know much more about consciousness. Progress has been slower than I expected."— Christof Koch, June 2023
"The hard problem of consciousness is as baffling as ever. Twenty-five years from now, I suspect it will still be baffling."— David Chalmers
At resolution in 2048: Koch will be 91, Chalmers will be 82
A "clear" neural signature of consciousness is identified — one that reliably predicts the presence or absence of experience across different states, species, and potentially artificial systems. Most researchers agree on what the correlate is and it's empirically validated.
Multiple competing theories persist without convergence. Or neural correlates are found but the "hard problem" remains — we still can't explain WHY those correlates are accompanied by experience rather than occurring "in the dark."